We proudly announce Bjørn Egil Nygaard, Kjeller Vindteknikk, part of Norconsult (NO) as one of the keynotes of #Winterwind2021!
Meteorologist educated at the university of Oslo with a PhD on numerical modelling of atmospheric icning on structures. Nygaard has been seven years at the norwegian meteorological institute and been working at Kjeller Vindteknikk since 2013. “I am a true weather nerd, and as a child, my favourite TV show was the weather forecast” he says.
Combining ensemble icing forecasts with real-time measurements for power line and wind turbine applications
Forecasting atmospheric icing of structures is inherently challenging due to the large sensitivity to several meteorological variables such as wind speed, wind direction, cloud water content, droplet size distribution temperature etc. When single or deterministic forecasts fail, they may cause poor or wrong decisions because the forecast uncertainty is unknown. Therefore, Kjeller Vindteknikk (part of Norconsult AS) has developed an ensemble forecasting product that forms the basis for probabilistic short-term icing forecasts, currently in operation in two different projects. Firstly, the R&D project Icebox, where real-time icing measurements are used as input to the probabilistic icing forecasts. Secondly, Wind Energy in Icing Climates (WEIC) where wind turbine SCADA data are analyzed in real-time and coupled to the probabilistic icing forecasts.
From a power grid operation perspective, icing is particularly challenging due to the limited information available in real-time. Often, the first indication of a severe icing event is an outage due to flashover from sagging conductors to the ground, or even worse, a sudden outage due to collapsed towers or tower components. Icebox is a research and development project lead by Statnett, the transmission system operator in Norway. In this project we develop a system for real-time monitoring and probabilistic forecasting of ice loads on overhead transmission lines, that will be used by the grid operators to limit outages due to ice and wind loads, by actively utilize de- and anti-icing technologies on the power lines when critical weather situations are detected or predicted by the ensemble forecast.
With regards to wind energy, the probabilistic icing forecast is combined with real-time measurements to identify imminent risks of ice throw in the ongoing WEIC project. The WEIC project is an initiative by Kjeller Vindteknikk along with several wind farm operators in Norway and Sweden to improve the accuracy of ice throw forecasts as well as communication platforms for such forecasts. Ice sensors within
the wind farm as well as icing signals derived from SCADA data are used to validate/correct the initial conditions of each forecast iteration and thereby improve the accuracy of icing nowcasts (forecasts for the very near future). Furthermore, real-time SCADA data are used to perform running calibrations of already issued icing forecasts.
Check out the preliminary program here!
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